Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 23.114782 25.156904 27.363091 29.935016 32.865385 36.117346 40.023080
2025-12-14 19.752935 22.513988 25.704877 29.709336 34.664391 40.682176 48.683412
2025-12-21 18.055188 21.361212 25.400098 30.799482 37.993132 47.503193 61.497480
2025-12-28 16.259318 19.774280 24.251241 30.536909 39.424419 52.041668 72.355476
2026-01-04 14.957344 18.613023 23.435718 30.500029 41.032566 57.005430 85.074235
2026-01-11 14.037863 17.827125 22.985724 30.841189 43.153123 63.066388 101.343227
2026-01-18 13.114086 16.928195 22.254917 30.631546 44.329313 67.772171 116.710365
2026-01-25 12.330428 16.145354 21.594430 30.414069 45.407781 72.473847 133.769087
2026-02-01 11.697264 15.518726 21.092176 30.361362 46.719093 77.845997 154.532575
2026-02-08 11.106785 14.904801 20.546290 30.157933 47.704276 82.773694 176.564666
2026-02-15 10.570702 14.330924 20.008760 29.897148 48.523482 87.528486 200.698291
2026-02-22 10.092578 13.811011 19.511181 29.643403 49.303208 92.375098 228.091889
2026-03-01 9.677233 13.370463 19.121177 29.564296 50.476684 98.608127 265.283672
2026-03-08 9.264328 12.909511 18.665067 29.320600 51.284144 104.232389 305.526355
2026-03-15 9.125087 12.869616 18.900434 30.380398 55.069561 118.915911 401.186962
2026-03-22 8.765782 12.454676 18.469093 30.118668 55.859426 125.565912 468.290232
2026-03-29 8.472385 12.129828 18.168950 30.080694 57.165882 134.281844 562.962022
2026-04-05 8.259652 11.924711 18.061682 30.414387 59.430871 147.024925 715.254902
2026-04-12 7.980712 11.594408 17.709335 30.208521 60.314195 155.508531 860.201245
2026-04-19 7.720254 11.282143 17.369393 29.995158 61.147839 164.258448 1042.164902
2026-04-26 7.499808 11.026879 17.116963 29.943420 62.411522 175.355181 1309.539011
2026-05-03 7.273537 10.751069 16.809906 29.743936 63.241164 185.194422 1629.396699
2026-05-10 7.053882 10.477000 16.490400 29.488212 63.876170 194.639540 2033.932061